BANGKOK (NNT) – With the government’s stimulus measures being the main driver of economic recovery, the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) has forecast that the Thai economy will grow 3.8 percent next year.
The EIC First Executive Vice President, Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, said today that more money is being injected into the economy in the final quarter of the year due to additional long weekends and stimulus measures, including the half-half co-payment, Shop Dee Mee Kuen and We Travel Together campaigns, as well as a measure to strengthen the purchasing power of welfare card holders. These factors are expected to boost economic growth by 0.53 percent.
However, the country’s economy may experience slow growth because of the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many countries at this time. It may affect the exporters, many of whom are dealing with the appreciation of the Thai baht.
As for the current COVID-19 situation in Thailand, it may affect spending and the confidence of tourists in the short term. The Thai economy is expected to contract 6.5 percent this year, an improvement from the previous forecast of a negative 7.8 percent.
In 2021, the Thai economy is expected to grow 3.8 percent, despite many risk factors. Measures to stimulate the economy and investment are still necessary. They include an extension of the co-pay scheme and the We Travel Together campaign, as well as increasing the purchasing power of welfare card holders. These measures are a sign that the government is ready to use fiscal mechanisms to support the economy and encourage public spending.
As COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and authorized for use in some countries, the situation will help the tourism industry recover in the second half of 2021. Some 8 million international arrivals are expected next year.
GDP to expand 2.6% in 2021 says Kasikorn Bank
The Executive Chairman of Kasikorn Research Center (KRC), Dr. Charl Kengchon, said that the Thai economy is expected to expand 2.6 percent in 2021, driven by government spending, consumption and investment.
The government’s co-pay, Shop Dee Mee Kuen and We Travel Together projects, aimed at stimulating spending, have shown clear results in the short term. People have more purchasing power, and there is more money injected into the economy, particularly the local economy.
However, the growth rate is not significantly high due to some uncertainties. The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to shape the future direction of the world economy.
Despite the COVID-19 vaccine development, its availability and accessibility remain an issue. As a result, the plan to reopen Thailand to international visitors will be slowly implemented in the second half of the year. Other factors include the appreciation of Thai baht and the political situation.