Best bets for Newcastle races, tips and analysis with Matt Jones


Peter Robl has had a lot to like about Finally Realise, even though Thursday is the first time he will see him race.

Robl bought the All Too Hard two-year-old at a Classic Sale for $50,000 and he has turned out to be a bargain.

“He’s a half-brother to Sylvia’s Mother, who has won a stakes race,” Robl said.

“He’s showed us nice ability all the way through. I trialled him at the early official trials but he pulled up sore so he went to the paddock.

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“He’s come back and has progressed nicely and both his trials have been very good.”

After winning a 760m trial at Hawkesbury, then running second in a 742m heat at Randwick, Robl found Thursday’s 2YO Maiden Handicap (900m) at Newcastle to kick off the career of Finally Realise.

Robl said punters should be able to watch a horse parade well and act like he is experienced beyond his years before the gates fly open.

“He won’t do anything wrong,” Robl said.

“At his last trial at Randwick, a horse went up in the gates and a horse got away and galloped a lap of the track. Rachel King said he just stood in the gates and didn’t bat an eyelid.

“It makes my job a lot easier. He’s got the right attitude and I don’t think the day out will be beyond him at all.”

Keegan Latham will ride Finally Realise from barrier one against a field of mainly first starters.

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BEST BETS WITH MATT JONES: NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

KARMAZONE (Race 3, No. 1)
This horse has been putting in eye-catching runs for a while now and out to 1850m should be the key to get him winning. He was flying home last start over 1600m.

NEXT BEST

FAVRA (RACE 6. NO. 8)
This horse’s consistency takes him a long way and he was most unlucky when fourth last start after getting held up in the straight. He can win now.

BEST VALUE

CLEAR BLONDE (Race 2, No. 3)


She won her maiden with a bit in hand and there’s enough speed in this race for her to sit off and charge home once again.

BEST EXOTIC: QUADRELLA

Leg 1: 2, 3, 5, 6

Leg 2: 1, 3, 7, 11

Leg 3: 2, 4, 7, 8

Leg 4: 4, 7, 13

TRAINER TO WATCH

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have a few good hopes, kicking off with Gogol in the first followed by Smart Success in the second.

SCROLL DOWN FOR MATT’S EXTENDED PREVIEW & TIPS

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The gelding should give himself every chance to kick off his career in the best possible fashion.

“Drawing one is not going to worry him in the sense that he could be in the gates for two or three minutes, and his racing manners have been professional all the way through,” Robl said.

“I think a 900m race is perfect, as is barrier one, and a good track will be ideal. He’ll be in the first three. He might hold the fence or box seat, which will be up to Keegan to work out.

“He’s a speed horse. He’s shown in his trials that he’s got good speed, so over 900m we’ll certainly be using it.”

Robl will also run Power Of Attorney in a Benchmark 64 Handicap (1400m) after the gelding finished second at Wyong last start over 1300m.

He came from off the speed that day and will do it again on Thursday from barrier 14, where the ride of Latham will be most crucial.

“The two runs he’s had for me have been very good and he’s going good enough to be winning this race,” Robl said.

“It would have been nice to draw a nice gate with him so he could have a bit of luck.

“Last start he got caught three deep and had to take off a bit early but he still raced really well.

“He’s taken good improvement out of that last start so hopefully he can get some luck this time.

“We just need to get a bit of cover. Even if it’s three deep, that won’t be so bad around Newcastle. I just want him to get a soft run at some stage.”

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HER SHOW: GAI ROMANCE TO CONTINUE WITH HISTORIC RACE

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INSIDE MAIL WITH MATT JONES: NEWCASTLE

RACE 1

She’s So Savvy produced an eye-catching run first-up at Kembla Grange when coming from 11th at the 400m to run second over 1400m so the extra trip is ideal and it will be interesting to see how she goes second-up. Queen Snip just gets better with each run and will also appreciate a rise in trip and should be within striking distance this time. Gogol also looks ready to win and is the likely leader and the one to chase down which will be difficult considering how fit he is at this point of his preparation. Sacred Suit should do better this time.

BET: EXACTA 8, 1

RACE 2

Four last start winners here with Madame Legend looking like the one who will start favourite after her one-length maiden win last start which proved to be a tough win from the lead. History may challenge for favouritism after she crossed them from a wide gate to lead all the way and she’ll get a good run from the gate and be hard to get past because her win last time was dominant. Can Clear Blonde defy the punters and win again after she won with a bit in hand as a $26 chance. Joy For Us and Smart Success are also good hopes.

BET: CLEAR BLONDE EACH WAY

RACE 3

Karmazone hasn’t win this time in but the 1850m trip might be the key to him breaking through after hitting the line hard at all four runs this time in, two of them in Provincial Championships qualifiers. Kirwan’s Lane has also been coming home well over shorter trips this time in and he must jump better now to be a chance. Veteran Chief Kidder has found form back in the bush with two wins and this isn’t out of his reach either. Elaborate would have taken a lot of fitness out of his second placing at the same track and distance last time and the form out of that race has stacked up with Loves To Rock coming out and winning easily at its next start.

BET: KARAMZONE TO WIN

RACE 4

Peter Robl has plenty of confidence in Finally Realise’s ability and thinks he can win on debut from barrier one. He’s trialled up well and is a clam juvenile who doesn’t get worried by much. Kinloch has a wide barrier but should have the gate speed to get into a good enough spot and when he was let go in his latest trial he gapped them easily. It will be interesting to see how the Team Snowden runner Stoical bounced back after a solid debut in Victoria followed by an eight-week break. He’s already been well supported. Shadow Chaser showed enough in trials to suggest a good run on debut.

BET: FINALLY REALISE TO WIN

RACE 5

Duty has been costly to punters at his past three runs but coming back to 1200m is probably what he’s looking for to get that win and he’s third-up so he’s ready for a big run. Devan has been finishing less than a length off the winner at his past two while Lady Herbert has been given an easier task here by Team Hawkes after five runs in town. She’s suitably placed to break through. Shepherd Of Fire is ready to peak now at his first go at 1200m and he can sit outside the leader and get every chance.

BET: LADY HERBERT TO WIN

RACE 6

Peter Robl was confident Power Of Attorney could win this race until he drew barrier 14. If he gets luck in finding some cover midfield he can get the job done based on current form. Favra wants 1400m now and he’s been so consistent his whole career to date and should have won more than one race from eight attempts. He ran fourth last time but would have done much better had a run not closed up on him at a crucial time. Big Bad Bruce won at the track and distance last time while Montserrat will have the last crack at them and Tapiconic is an improver.

BET: FAVRA TO WIN

RACE 7

Hardspot held Trophies Galore safely when they met last time but Hardspot has a wide gate to overcome this time. She’s done that before that and is a real winner who should be hard to catch and this is no harder than the race she took out at the track last time. Maroch has some good form around him and will enjoy racing on top of the ground and as the first emergency he should get a run. If Ulysses does it’s a chance while Bombasay drops in grade and has been freshened which is a good combination.

BET: HARDSPOT TO WIN



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