Ethiopia on brink of civil war as Abiy Ahmed sends troops into Tigray


Tensions with Tigray escalated in recent months after the region went ahead with its own local elections despite all polls being suspended because of the coronavirus pandemic.

On October 7, Ethiopian lawmakers voted to withhold budget support from Tigray, a move one Tigrayan official said was “tantamount to a declaration of war.”

Most of Ethiopia’s military equipment is in Tigray because of a long-running war against neighbouring Eritrea that ended in 2018 when the countries signed a peace deal. Now, Abiy, who won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his reform efforts in Ethiopia and peace overtures to Eritrea, is trying to dislodge the Tigrayan-linked old guard elements from the military.

“The last red line has been crossed with [the] attacks and the federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation,” Abiy’s office said in the statement, citing what it called months of provocation and incitement. It said the mission was to “save the country and the region from spiralling instability.”

There was no official response from the TPLF, although Tigray TV reported that air space had been shut over the region. Internet and phone lines in Tigray were also down.

Both sides should immediately agree to a cease-fire, said William Davison, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, warning: “This war is the worst possible outcome of tensions that have been brewing.”

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (centre) arrives at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa in February.Credit:AP

“Given Tigray’s relatively strong security position, the conflict may well be protracted and disastrous,” he said, adding that a war could “seriously strain an Ethiopian state already buffeted by multiple grave political challenges and could send shock waves into the Horn of Africa region and beyond.”

Conflict in Tigray would further increase instability in Ethiopia and add to a host of recent crises Abiy’s government has had to deal with, including tensions with Egypt over an Ethiopian dam project on the Blue Nile River and locust outbreak across East Africa.

As the country has opened and political reforms have taken hold, ethnic and other political violence have flared up as well. At least 54 people from the ethnic Amhara group were killed in a schoolyard by rebels on Sunday, according to Amnesty International. The government blamed the Oromo Liberation Army for the attack in the far western part of Oromia near the border with South Sudan.

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Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed orders military response to ‘attack’

Mr Abiy said in a statement that a “red line” had been crossed

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has ordered a military offensive to subdue the authorities in Tigray state, following an alleged attack on an army base.

Mr Abiy accused the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), of launching the attack.

The attack resulted in “many martyrs, injuries and property damage”, he said in a TV address.

He also said the group “tried to loot” military assets.

Details of the attack could not be immediately verified.

Tensions between the government and TPLF have escalated in recent months, with both sides accusing the other of plotting to use military force.

In the statement, posted on his Twitter and Facebook pages, Mr Abiy said defence forces “have been ordered to carry out their mission to save the country”.

He added: “The final point of the red line has been crossed. Force is being used as the last measure to save the people and the country.”

The Tigray region’s president, Debrestion Gebremichael, told reporters on Monday the government were going to attack – alleging it was punishment for organising its own election for the Tigray parliament in September, in direct defiance of the federal government and electoral board decision to postpone all elections.

The government has described the vote as “illegal”. The national electoral board has since said the general election should go ahead in May or June of next year.

The Tigrayans held most of Ethiopia’s political power from 1991 to 2018, when Mr Ahmed was elected. Since then, their power has waned.

Mr Abiy, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, is facing increasing criticism from a number of sides, with some accusing him of locking up those who oppose his government.

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