With just one day left in the trade period, it’s clear two of the biggest deals are about to go down to the wire.
Will Jeremy Cameron make his way to Geelong? And can Essendon lure Josh Dunkley across from the Kennel?
The team from Fox Footy’s Trading Day reveal the deals that should get both moves done.
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– Essendon gives Pick 8, Collingwood gives Pick 16 and its future first-round pick
– Essendon gives Pick 16, GWS gives Jye Caldwell
– Essendon gives two future first-round picks (its own and Collingwood’s), the Western Bulldogs give Josh Dunkley
Why it works
This move satisfies the Magpies by allowing them to move up in the 2020 draft order and give away their first pick in 2021, which they won’t need due to a likely high bid for gun father-son prospect Nick Daicos.
It also satisfies the Giants’ desire for a first-round pick in return for 2018 No.11 selection Caldwell, for whom list boss Jason McCartney has said the club wants a pick close to where they drafted him.
So then it’s about Dunkley. The Bulldogs will need two first round picks to give up the contracted midfielder, but they don’t need picks in the 2020 crop because of a likely high bid for next generation academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
That’s why two 2021 first-round picks could be enough to get Dunkley to Tullamarine.
“Essendon would still have pick 6 and 7 in this draft, and they haven’t had a pick inside the top 30 for three years, and they get their man in Josh Dunkley, so I think that’s a pretty good result for them considering who’s gone out of that club,” St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy’s Trading Day.
“The Bulldogs, they don’t need to be in this draft because they want to use their (draft) points on the young fella (Jamarra Ugle-Hagan), so they get future picks which I think makes sense.”
The other option though would see Essendon send two of its three top-ten draft picks to the Bulldogs for Dunkley, who would then use those picks to get higher in the first round.
North Melbourne premiership player David King suggested gaining Picks 7 and 8 for Dunkley, and then trading them to North Melbourne (for Pick 2) or Sydney (for Pick 3).
The idea would be to get ahead of the bid for Ugle-Hagan, so that their draft picks aren’t used up when they match the bid.
The Bulldogs could therefore use Pick 2 or 3 on a prospect like Logan McDonald, a promising key position player, and also match the Ugle-Hagan bid – gaining both players.
Geelong gives picks 13, 15 and 20, GWS gives Jeremy Cameron
Why it works
In the end, the Cats may have to cough up all three of their first-round picks, even though they’re desperate not to.
GWS is driving a hard bargain for Cameron, despite the fact he’s a free agent and not contracted for next season, after matching the bid for him under restricted free agency rules.
Geelong has offered picks 13 and 15, but the Giants want three first-round picks or two and a player.
While the Cats could try and land Cameron through the national or pre-season draft, it would be incredibly risky, as any team could select him before their pick – if they can fit Cameron’s contract into their salary cap.
“This is a volcano waiting to blow – this is Vesuvius,” Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said on Trading Day.
“GWS are saying, we’ve got salary cap room, we’ve got a pick before you – we’ll just get him.
“It’s such a high-risk strategy. I can’t see any way Geelong in the end won’t have to give up close to three first rounders.”
The question though is whether three first-round picks is a fair price for Cameron.
According to King, Geelong’s current offer of 13 and 15 isn’t enough, based on what they got out of West Coast for Tim Kelly last year.
The Tim Kelly deal
West Coast gives up picks 14, 24, 33 in 2019 and pick 15 in 2020 = 3621 draft points
Geelong gives up picks 37 and 52 = 724 draft points
Approximate price = 2892 points, roughly equal to Pick 1
Geelong’s current Jeremy Cameron offer
Geelong gives up picks 13 and 15 = 2324 draft points, roughly equal to Pick 3
King suggested if Geelong added a future selection – but not a first-round pick – it would be a fair deal.
“There’s a big gap between those (Kelly and Cameron) deals,” he said on Fox Footy.
“I personally think if there was a future second thrown in, you’d get the deal done, because that would be about 500-odd points – it’s close to parity.
“But GWS are looking at that and going, no, it’s time to pay.”
But the Giants don’t just want a good deal, but want the public perception to be that they clearly won the negotiation.
“I don’t think that’s (adding a future second) going to get it done,” Ralph said.
“I think it has to be those three first-rounders, because they don’t just want to be winning from a points perspective, they want to be seen to be winning as well.”