Antony Green thinks Eden-Monaro could be a ‘once-in-a-century’ election. Here’s why


Posted

July 03, 2020 05:08:15

As goes Eden-Monaro, so goes Australia. Or so it used to be.

From 1972 to 2013, this regional seat in south-east NSW was the quintessential bellwether electorate.

For 17 elections in a row, the winning candidate in Eden-Monaro entered Parliament and took his seat on the Government benches.

And with Eden-Monaro it has always been ‘his’ seat. The seat lost its bellwether status in 2016, and this Saturday’s by-election will end the seat’s run as a male bastion too.

Either Labor’s Kristy McBain, or Liberal Fiona Kotvojs, will become Eden-Monaro’s first female representative.

The by-election has been caused by the resignation through ill health of Labor’s Mike Kelly.

He won the seat with a margin of just 0.9 per cent at last year’s election, and the loss of his significant personal vote will hurt Labor’s chance of retaining the seat.

A seat like no other

On its current boundaries, Eden-Monaro is a more conservative seat than when Kelly was first elected in 2007.

Eden-Monaro has never been a bellwether because its population was representative of the nation.

Proximity to Canberra means Eden-Monaro has a much higher proportion of its workforce employed in government or related industries. Only the ACT’s seats have more government employees.

History and geography have confined Eden-Monaro to the south-east corner of NSW since Federation. Bounded on three sides by the mountains, Victoria and the sea, Eden-Monaro’s name tells you where it is and has always been, the south coast of NSW and the high country behind.

Like all regional seats, Labor’s vote tends to be in regional cities, with Coalition support stronger in smaller towns.

The extension of the electorate ahead of the 2016 election helped the Coalition by removing Batemans Bay on the south coast and extending the electorate around the ACT to include more traditional conservative voting rural districts.


Map: Eden-Monaro’s election encompasses Yass to the South Coast.

But Eden-Monaro is different from most regional seats, due to the nature of the electorate’s largest centre — Queanbeyan.

Few regional cities are as urban, or urbane, as Queanbeyan. The city is in part a dormitory suburb for the national capital and gets its media from Canberra rather than Sydney.

Labor’s vote is stronger in Queanbeyan than most regional cities, and that explains why Eden-Monaro is always more marginal than most regional seats.

About 40 per cent of Eden-Monaro voters are in Queanbeyan and townships east of the ACT, another 30 per cent on the NSW far south coast, the remaining voters stretched around the ACT in smaller communities from Cooma through to Tumut and Yass.

Labor’s strength at the 2019 election was in Queanbeyan and on the south coast, with the Liberal Party stronger in the rural parts of the electorate.

Labor also won the vote on election day, but the Liberal Party polled more strongly with pre-poll and postal voters.

Once-in-a-century events

With the election conducted mid-winter in one of Australia’s coldest electorates, and with concerns over COVID-19 still current, around half of the electorate will have voted by election day. Pre-poll voting rates are slightly up on the 2019 election and postal vote applications have more than doubled.

Postal voting may not favour the Liberal Party as strongly this time. In 2019, Labor mounted only a token postal voting campaign, receiving and passing on only 41 postal vote applications to the Australian Electoral Commission.

For the by-election Labor has forwarded more than 4,400 applications.

All pre-polls and a large slice of postal votes will be counted on election night, along with all votes cast on election day. Unless the result is extremely close, we should know the winner on Saturday night.

Social distancing rules adopted for the count will slow down the reporting of results on election night. While the result should be clear on the night, it may not be clear early.

History tells you Labor should hold Eden-Monaro. The last time a government took a seat from an opposition was at the Kalgoorlie by-election in 1920. Some have noted the coincidence that the Kalgoorlie by-election was held in the aftermath of the great flu pandemic.

Perhaps pandemics and government gains at by-elections are once-in-a-century events.

Big test for Morrison and Albanese

History is against the Government winning the by-election, but history is less relevant than the current political climate.

Eden-Monaro will provide the first electoral measure of Scott Morrison’s popularity following his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. But it will be a measure taken in a seat where he was marked down in January for some tin-eared handling of the bushfire emergency.

It is also the first electoral test of new Labor leader Anthony Albanese at a time when the Opposition has struggled for attention, crowded out of the picture as state and federal leaders led the national response to COVID-19.

The Labor Party will be hoping that national opinion polls, showing little change in voting intentions since last year’s federal election, are a better measure of electoral support than the beauty contest of preferred Prime Minister.

The Eden-Monaro by-election is more important to the Opposition than the Government. The Prime Minister would love to add a seat to his narrow majority in the House of Representatives, but victory is not critical.

A Labor victory with a swing against the Government could be easily explained away by history, as well as the Liberal and National Party’s chaotic initial manoeuvring to choose a candidate.

Labor has lost Mike Kelly’s significant personal support, but started the campaign better than the Government by quickly settling on its candidate, former Bega mayor Kristy McBain.

Social distancing has made it an impersonal campaign; baby kissing and handshakes have been off the agenda.

The Liberal Party has had all the advantages of holding government and been able to dominate coverage through the daily COVID-19 news agenda.

The Government has also been strategic in bringing forward ‘announcables’ for the campaign.

While of little relevance to the by-election, the emergence of internal factional problems in Victoria during the campaign has relevance to the internal workings of the federal Labor caucus.

Scott Morrison may be able to dismiss a loss in the Eden-Monaro by-election, but a loss for Labor will provide ammunition for Anthony Albanese’s factional opponents in the Labor party.

Topics:

elections,

government-and-politics,

nsw,

yass-2582,

bega-2550,

eden-2551



Source link

AFP charges man over scam emails targeting Labor’s Eden-Monaro candidate Kristy McBain


A 32-year-old Sydney man has been charged for allegedly sending emails to voters in the Eden-Monaro by-election trying to discredit Labor’s candidate in the poll.

The Australian Federal Police (AFP) were called in to investigate, after suspicious messages arrived in inboxes in southern New South Wales, taking aim at former Bega Valley Mayor Kristy McBain.

The emails appeared to be from the Catholic Church and linked Ms McBain to, among other things, the coronavirus pandemic.

“The AFP commenced the investigation following a report from the Electoral Integrity Assurance Taskforce and the Australian Electoral Commission on 10 June, 2020,” it said in a statement.

“The report related to spam emails, which appeared to be from legitimate sources, being sent from an unidentified user to the Australian community and various organisations.

The spam was described by the AFP as “disinformation”, with voters being urged to vote for Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs instead.

Officers are pictured with evidence bags nd computers in the backyard of a home.
AFP officers searched the Sydney man’s home over the alleged spam emails.(Supplied: Australian Federal Police)

The man from Blacktown, in Sydney’s western suburbs, has had one charge brought against him, although the AFP are still investigating other suspicious emails.

The 32-year-old has been released on bail, and will appear in court in September.

In recent days, voters received emails suggesting Ms McBain was pulling out of the by-election because she had tested positive for coronavirus.

The Labor Party denounced the emails, as did Liberal candidate Ms Kotvojs.

“It’s offensive and inappropriate. There’s no place for this sort of thing in our politics or our society,” Ms Kotvojs said at the time.

The AFP said the investigation was ongoing.

In a statement, the Australian Electoral Commission said it took the matter “very seriously” and was continuing to provide evidence to support the investigation.

The by-election in Eden-Monaro was triggered by the resignation of Labor’s Mike Kelly.

The vote will be held this Saturday.

There are five men in the photo, including one sitting at a desk. Officers are taking photos and searching computers.
The AFP investigated the matter after it was referred to them last month.(Supplied: Australian Federal Police)



Source link

Eden-Monaro by-election HEMP Party candidate ‘doesn’t want to win’


One of the 14 candidates running in this weekend’s Eden-Monaro by-election says he does not want to win the marginal seat.

Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) Party president Michael Balderstone travelled more than 1,200 kilometres from his northern New South Wales home of Nimbin to the state’s south-east to run in the seat.

But he says he’s not in it to win it.

“The HEMP Party is really a protest vote,” he said.

According to ABC election analyst Antony Green, Mr Balderstone has no need to worry.

Green predicts the former bellwether seat will be won by Labor’s Kristy McBain or Liberal Fiona Kotvojs.

If Mr Balderstone did defy the odds, however, he said he would honour the result by moving to the Bega region.

“I’d be into it, but it’s extremely unlikely,” he said.

“But I’d hire that nice Bega mayor [Kristy McBain] to help me on the local issues.”

An older man with a white beard, wearing a hat and standing against a red wall.
Michael Balderstone used to work as a stockbroker in London. Now lives in Nimbin.(ABC North Coast: Samantha Turnbull)

‘Good old hippie values’

Mr Balderstone said he had been welcomed by the Eden-Monaro community, despite not being a local.

He said anyone who stereotyped him as a hippie would only be partly correct.

“I used to work for a stockbroker in London but I felt like I was just helping rich people get richer,” he said.

Mr Balderstone, who turned 72 last week, said he would happily drive back to Nimbin after the by-election if he didn’t win.

“I came to Nimbin 30 years ago and I’ve got all those good old hippie values people laugh about, but we’ve become mainstream,” he said.

“Most Nimbin values have been accepted in wider Australia, but the one thing that hasn’t changed is the war on drugs.”

A 'honk 4 hemp' sign on a car with an inflatable cannabis joint sticking out the window.
The Hemp Party’s Michael Balderstone has been campaigning on roadsides throughout the Eden-Monaro electorate.(Supplied: Michael Balderstone)

Why bother?

Mr Balderstone said his goal was to draw attention to his push for drug law reform.

“I’m sick of both major parties looking at law and order and not facing drug use as a health issue,” he said.

“We wanted to get drug law reform on the agenda, but also because the electorate surrounds Canberra, where they’re allowed to grow a couple of cannabis plants.

“Why can’t we do that across Australia?”

Mr Balderstone also said he wanted to bring particular to attention to drug-driving laws which he said unfairly punished cannabis users.

“We all agree that no one wants impaired drivers,” he said.

“But in Australia, we just do this shonky test … we should separate cannabis from other drugs.



Source link

The Eden-Monaro ballot tryst


The Eden-Monaro By-election proved to be an entertaining democratic flirtation giving some thing for absolutely everyone, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.

ELECTIONS must be cherished as a prospect for voters to have interaction in the democratic ritual referred to as “voting for your representative”. On the other hand, many do not care a jot, at minimum in Australia, that a agent is a fusty human being with no other goal in lifestyle than filling the ballot position. A superior portion vote for the party their mother and father did. Once elected, shortly overlooked. 

Australia also delivers the grandest of political processes and very little in phrases of hefty concepts in the political arena. The mild on the hill can be lowered to a set of containers on a preferential voting method. The figurehead is stuffing in a course of action that is revered in excess of the compound of what is available. 

That method is its individual enemy. Compulsory voting techniques develop drizzles of boring predictability, punctuated by the rarest of surprises. One exception can be the by-election. In the Westminster procedure, the byelection is tentative titillation, distraction, flirtation. It is a night out from your previous get together husband or wife, a tryst off the observe. 

Swings are permitted, often on a grand scale. Vote for fringe events. Knock you out, but hardly ever up, considering that commitment is not essentially heading to be on the cards. As a voter inconvenienced by the realisation that you will have to vote all over again very shortly, you can tell your common get together to take a fantastic glance at alone as you pack in your lot with the opposition prospect for a steamily quick holiday absent from reality. The Australian by-election, in other words and phrases, is a prospect to have an alternative ballot “shag“.

The Eden-Monaro ballot shag had a very little bit of anything for the commentators and candidates. Would Key Minister Scott Morrison’s bungled handling of the bushfire disaster chunk? Where would the coronavirus disaster and the Federal Government response attribute? It also offered the Morrison Governing administration a narrative that they would not be pretty so hammered as they normally would be in these little contests. It gave the Labor Opposition Chief Anthony Albanese a opportunity for his social gathering to maintain on to a seat, which he truly risked dropping. 

 

It also offered the Nationals with a large headache, mainly in the form of NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro. Barilaro had been at first eager on nominating for the Nationals, hoping to leapfrog from state politics to the Federal parliament. But things did not quite change out that way. In May, he attacked fellow Countrywide, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, for featuring inadequate assist for his candidacy. 

Barilaro raged by way of a leaked text information: 

“You will in no way be acknowledged by me as our leader. You aren’t. You by no means will be.” 

For the briefest of moments, there had been a suggestion that the Coalition Authorities would concede to only operating just one candidate in the combat, but that proved chimerical. The Liberals’ NSW Condition Transportation Minister Andrew Constance at first threw his hat into the ring — an exertion that lasted all but 24 hrs. Barilaro, champing at the bit, was none way too pleased, describing his contesting colleague as a “c*nt”

Constance, in convert, mirrored on the parlous point out of politics in Australia:

“I want to continue to be concentrated on the bushfire recovery and be grateful for the prospects I by now have.” 

Seeds of confusion experienced been sown.  

McCormack was also agitated: owning Barilaro in the celebration Federal ranks could possibly incorporate pointless dynamite to his already fragile maintain on electrical power. The crimson carpet remedy would not be forthcoming.

Barilaro reached his have conclusions, telling McCormack: 

“To sense threatened by me evidently exhibits you have unsuccessful your group and failed as a chief.”    

With the bucking Barilaro and wounded Constance out, the dust settled — in a trend. A three-way contest unfolded showcasing Labor’s previous Bega Mayor Kristy McBain, the Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs and Trevor Hicks for the Nationals. 

The Liberal prospect had attracted attention for her group submission in aid of the Religious Freedom Bill in 2018, which integrated the pursuing:

‘Religious colleges and organisations must be authorized to positively discriminate in employment for persons who adhere to their beliefs on relationship.’ 

Environmentalists also mentioned Kotvojs’ background of minimising the anthropogenic results in of local climate improve.

Warned founder and president of Cleanse Electrical power for Eternity Matthew Nott:

“She has a much more conservative position on weather than Tony Abbott.”

The vote – and cumbersome commentary – wore on via the Saturday night television coverage. Victory in the seat would have adjusted tiny in the decreased residence for either social gathering, but the chattering politicos thought in any other case. Governments really should drop these kinds of elections opposition parties really should acquire them. This experienced been the scenario for a century. But Morrison’s particular recognition is high, although it has failed to translate into voting attitudes Albanese seems to exist in a point out of lasting political eclipse. There was a feeling that Labor may possibly fall short in retaining Eden-Monaro and, in so doing, gentle the fires of a possible coup in opposition to their chief. Much warm air was emitted.

Every single politician on the ABC election panel understood their quick. Senator Kristina Keneally – who has normally been additional a heel of Achilles for the Labor Bash than its talisman – was executing her ideal to persuade that Labor must be executing far worse, the seat being “notionally Liberal”. Her counterpart in debate and commentary, Setting Minister (Australia nevertheless has them) Sussan Ley championed the credentials of the Key Minister. The ABC’s Jane Norman did her most effective to steer proceedings and prod issues election analyst and perennial psephologist Antony Eco-friendly held court.

Finally, the victory claimed by McBain was one of a compact-margin and even scaled-down result. Commentators and pundits ended up squeezing blood from the stone, but it appeared that Labor experienced held on with the unremarkable phenomenon of tastes, cushioning a drop of three for every cent in the key vote

What is really wrong with our media: The Eden Monaro example

Rupert Murdoch’s assault dog The Australian growled with resentment at what it saw as the “bastardry” of Barilaro. 

Norman observed that the outcome

“…at the same time aided to strengthen Anthony Albanese’s leadership of the Labor Get together even though giving Scott Morrison a shot in the arm, getting withstood a feasible protest vote over his dealing with of the bushfire crisis.” 

Some Labor insiders, such as the extended-in-tooth Joel Fitzgibbonfelt that the dip in the main vote was inadequate for the ALP to gain Federal office, however expressed gratification at the party’s move in direction of the “sensible centre”. 

In other phrases, it was a by-election with a little something, having said that small, for all people.

https://www.youtube.com/observe?v=anyfrS52wXA

Dr Binoy Kampmark was a Cambridge Scholar and is an Impartial Australia columnist and lecturer at RMIT College. You can stick to Dr Kampmark on Twitter @BKampmark.

Associated Content articles

Help impartial journalism Subscribe to IA.

 





Resource website link

Labor likely to win Eden-Monaro; Andrews’s ratings fall in Victoria


At Saturday’s Eden-Monaro byelection, Labor’s Kristy McBain currently leads the Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs by a 50.7-49.3 projected margin in The Poll Bludger’s Eden-Monaro election page. This page has all the numbers, including booth by booth results. The projected margin is an estimate of the margin once all votes are counted, not the current margin. McBain is given a 74% win probability.

Primary vote projections are currently 38.5% Liberal, 35.3% Labor, 6% National, 6% Greens and 14.2% for all Others. Had preference flows at the byelection been similar to the 2019 federal election, the Liberals would have won. But Labor currently has 50% of all preferences, a 10% swing on preference flows to Labor.

While the Greens lost vote share, much of it went to Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP), which won 2.5%. Labor also benefited from the “donkey vote” coming from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. The Shooters were first on the ballot paper, with Labor ahead of the Liberals.

If Labor holds on in Eden-Monaro, it will be a huge relief for Anthony Albanese. Analyst Peter Brent wrote in Inside Story that, while no government has gained an opposition-held seat at a byelection in almost a century, the lack of a personal vote for the sitting MP in opposition-held seats means they are far more likely to swing to the government at a byelection than in a government-held seat.

In 2013, the Abbott government achieved a 1.2% two party swing in former PM Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith at a byelection. Had that swing occurred Saturday, the Liberals would have gained Eden-Monaro.

Read more: Grattan on Friday: Saturday is crucial for Albanese but July 23 is more important for Morrison

Premiers still have high ratings, but Andrews falls in Victoria

In late April, Newspoll polled the ratings of the six premiers, and this exercise was repeated last week. Samples were 500-550 for the mainland states, and 311 in Tasmania.

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein had the best ratings in the June premiers’ Newspoll, at 90% satisfied, 8% dissatisfied (net +82). His satisfaction rating overtook WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan in April (89%) as the best ever for a premier or PM in Australian polling history.

Gutwein’s net approval was up nine points from April, while McGowan slid four points to a still very high 88% satisfied, 9% dissatisfied (net +79).

The biggest change in net approval was Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. His net approval fell 18 points to +40, with 67% satisfied and 27% dissatisfied. Andrews’s fall appears to be related to the recent spike in Victorian coronavirus cases, not the Adem Somyurek branch stacking affair. His net ratings on handling coronavirus fell sharply from +74 to +47.

NSW Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian had a +42 net approval, down from +46, with 68% satisfied and 26% dissatisfied. SA Liberal Premier Steven Marshall had a +52 net approval, up from +47, with 72% satisfied and 20% dissatisfied.

Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk continued to trail with a +24 net approval, though that was up eight points. 59% were satisfied and 35% dissatisfied. The Queensland election will be held in late October.

Scott Morrison had a +41 net approval in last Monday’s federal Newspoll. Palaszczuk trails Morrison, Andrews and Berejiklian are about level, Marshall is above him, and McGowan and Gutwein are far ahead.

A good US jobs report, but there’s a long way to go

The June US jobs report was released Thursday. 4.8 million jobs were created and the unemployment rate dropped 2.2% to 11.1%. While the unemployment rate is far better than the 14.7% in April, it is far worse than during a normal economy.

The employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans that are employed – rose 1.8% in June to 54.6%. But at the lowest point of the recovery from the global financial crisis, the employment ratio was 58.2%.

The surveys used for the jobs report were conducted in mid-June, before the recent spike in US coronavirus cases, which peaked at over 57,000 on Thursday. This new spike may derail an economic recovery.

Author: Adrian Beaumont – Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne



Source link

Eden-Monaro byelection: Labor ‘100 per cent confident’ of Eden-Monaro win | Goulburn Post


news, local-news, eden monaro byelection, kristy mcbain, fiona kotvojs, eden monaro results

Labor’s Kristy McBain says there’s a long road ahead of her, after claiming victory in the seat of Eden-Monaro on Sunday after a tightly-fought byelection. The former Bega mayor is set to become the first female MP to represent the southern NSW seat since Federation, after narrowly edging out Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs. While ABC chief election analyst Antony Green called the seat for Labor around 1am on Sunday, the party did not claim victory until around 1pm on Sunday, when Ms McBain was around 1400 votes ahead with approximately 4000 postal votes to be counted. While Dr Kotvojs was ahead on primary votes, Ms McBain nosed in front of her on a two-party preferred basis. “On all metrics it looks like the Labor party will secure the seat again,” Ms McBain said. However the Liberals were reluctant to concede until all the votes were counted. By 5pm the gap had narrowed to around 900 votes and by 5.40pm it was down to around 740. Several errors were detected in the count which advantaged the Liberal candidate. One error meant Dr Kotvojs picked up an extra 300 votes. However Labor sources indicated they were still confident the seat would fall their way. Ms McBain said Dr Kotvojs would have required 63 per cent of the remaining postal votes on a two-party preferred basis to snatch victory. Just before 6pm, Labor said the Liberals would need to get around 70 per cent of the 1700 votes left to count if it were to win the seat. However a senior Labor figure says it was an “ugly win”, with the party’s primary vote going backwards and the win largely relying on preferences. “It’s a bit of an ugly win for us I can see, but it’s a win just the same. It was a difficult election for us, the advantages of incumbency, for example, was an enormous hurdle to overcome,” Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon told the ABC’s Insiders program. “We, of course, lost a bit of our primary vote again, coming off a fairly low base in 2019, but as you pointed out, we lost Mike Kelly, we have a Prime Minister who, with the Opposition’s full support, has been literally spending hundreds of billions of dollars, providing support to people. “He has had, of course, saturation media now for weeks. I have never seen the advantages of incumbency so large. Of course, as I said, his approval ratings were high, but he wasn’t able to improve his primary vote by much last night.” Ms McBain told The Canberra Times she would work hard to gain back ground lost by Dr Kelly’s resignation. “We knew that Mike Kelly had a personal vote of around 3 per cent, that’s probably exactly what we saw. It’s going to take a lot of hard work right across the electorate to win some of Mike Kelly’s personal voters back but I’m up for that challenge,” she said. Labor leader Anthony Albanese described it as an “against the odds victory”, given the government’s record spending to stave off the full impacts of the coronavirus downturn. “Kristy McBain will be a champion for the people of Eden-Monaro. She is passionate about her local community, she is articulate, she has an extraordinary capacity and she is someone who will look for solutions, not look for argument,” Mr Albanese said. He rejected claims the tight race left his leadership of the party vulnerable. “What this campaign was about was not people with power, the Prime Minister or the leader of the Labor Party. This campaign was about people that don’t have power. Those people that we visited just outside Cobargo on Friday who are living in a caravan. They have been living there for six months. They still have debris on their property. This is about them. It is about people who cannot get assistance for their small businesses, who don’t know what is going to happen to them after September in terms of JobKeeper. This was about all of those issues – it was not about leadership,” Mr Albanese said. However Coalition minister Angus Taylor labelled the result as “devastating” for Labor. “On average by-elections like this have a swing against the government of 3.8 per cent and the government hasn’t won one for 100 years,” Mr Taylor told Sky News. “Albanese practically moved to the electorate, 23 different visits. He threw the book at this and you could see that on the polling booths on the day, you could see it on the advertising on television. Absolutely threw the book at it.” Ms McBain said it had been an extraordinarily tough campaign, with Labor forced to find new ways of reaching out to voters due to the ongoing pandemic. “We had to find new ways of engaging the electorate, we made thousands of phone calls, I did a whole range of Zoom meetings so things weren’t as they would normally be during a general election,” Ms McBain said. Labor’s campaign centred on the region’s ongoing bushfire recovery, and the need for jobs coming out of the coronavirus pandemic. Ms McBain – who made her mark during the bushfire crisis as mayor of the fire-ravaged Bega Valley – will push for a local jobs plan, for roads and black spots to be fixed and more money to be released from disaster recovery programs. She pledged to work with state MPs John Barilaro and Andrew Constance, Joe McGirr and Wendy Tuckerman to keep the spotlight on the region’s struggles. “As Mike [Kelly] said when he gave his press conference for retiring from the position, he hoped the byelection would bring a spotlight back to Eden-Monaro especially on the back of drought, bushfires and COVID-19 and that’s exactly what it did,” Ms McBain said. “I don’t think people realised that most of Eden-Monaro was still in drought. I don’t think people realised that some of that bushfire recovery money hadn’t been flowing out as quickly as it should have been and I don’t think people realised the impact of cumulative disasters on regional economies such as ours across Eden-Monaro. “We know that the cameras will leave and the spotlights will fade now the byelection’s over so it’s up to me to continue to amplify the voices of those people around me to make sure that we are fighting hard to make sure these issues won’t be forgotten by this government.” The byelection was sparked by the resignation of Labor MP Mike Kelly for health reasons. Dr Kelly congratulated Ms McBain on her win. “Delighted at the attention we drew to our issues. As painful as leaving has been this has made it all a little bit easier,” Dr Kelly tweeted.

https://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/37QjP93jNs5V7Xq869Rppbc/e93a5358-6b98-4851-a881-fb5de7b16db2.jpg/r16_618_6034_4018_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg





Source link

Labor’s Kristy McBain claims Eden-Monaro by-election victory against Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs


Labor’s Kristy McBain has officially claimed victory in the Eden-Monaro by-election, saying her party has clinched the marginal seat after preference flows secured her lead.

Late last night, ABC’s chief election Antony Green called the by-election result for Labor, but up until now, the Opposition was yet to officially claim victory.

About 80 per cent of the votes in the by-election have been counted, slowed by more than 44,000 pre-poll and postal votes.

A Liberal Party spokesperson told the ABC that Ms Kotvojs was not ready to call the election and noted there were many postal votes still arriving to be counted.

This afternoon, Ms McBain said her lead of more than 1,000 votes over opponent Fiona Kotvojs meant the Liberal Party would need a 63 per cent vote on a two-party preferred basis to win.

The count at the time showed Ms Kotvojs still ahead on first preferences, but falling just short on a two-party preferred basis at 49.1 per cent.



Source link

Labor set to win Eden-Monaro; Andrews’s ratings fall in Victoria


This article was updated July 5.

With 77% of enrolled voters counted at Saturday’s Eden-Monaro byelection, Labor’s Kristy McBain currently leads the Liberals’ Fiona Kotvojs by a 50.8-49.2 projected margin in The Poll Bludger’s Eden-Monaro election page.

This page has all the numbers, including booth by booth results. The projected margin is an estimate of the margin once all votes are counted, not the current margin. McBain is given a 96% win probability. The two party projection would be a zero swing from the 2019 election.

Primary votes are currently 37.8% Liberal (up 0.8%), 36.2% Labor (down 3.0%), 6.6% National (down 0.3%), 5.6% Greens (down 3.2%) and 5.4% Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. Had preference flows at the byelection been similar to the 2019 federal election, the Liberals would have won. But Labor currently has 57% of all preferences, an 8% swing on preference flows to Labor.

While the Greens lost vote share, much of it went to Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP), which won 2.4%. Labor also benefited from the “donkey vote” coming from the Shooters. The Shooters were first on the ballot paper, with Labor ahead of the Liberals.

If Labor holds on in Eden-Monaro, it will be a huge relief for Anthony Albanese. Analyst Peter Brent wrote in Inside Story that, while no government has gained an opposition-held seat at a byelection in almost a century, the lack of a personal vote for the sitting MP in opposition-held seats means they are far more likely to swing to the government at a byelection than in a government-held seat.

In 2014, the Abbott government achieved a 1.2% two party swing in former PM Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith at a byelection. Had that swing occurred Saturday, the Liberals would have gained Eden-Monaro. In 90 federal byelections with a Labor vs non-Labor two party count, the average swing to the opposition is 4.7%, but it is just 1.1% in opposition-held seats.

Read more: Grattan on Friday: Saturday is crucial for Albanese but July 23 is more important for Morrison

Premiers still have high ratings, but Andrews falls in Victoria

In late April, Newspoll polled the ratings of the six premiers, and this exercise was repeated last week. Samples were 500-550 for the mainland states, and 311 in Tasmania.

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein had the best ratings in the June premiers’ Newspoll, at 90% satisfied, 8% dissatisfied (net +82). His satisfaction rating overtook WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan in April (89%) as the best ever for a premier or PM in Australian polling history.

Gutwein’s net approval was up nine points from April, while McGowan slid four points to a still very high 88% satisfied, 9% dissatisfied (net +79).

The biggest change in net approval was Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews. His net approval fell 18 points to +40, with 67% satisfied and 27% dissatisfied. Andrews’s fall appears to be related to the recent spike in Victorian coronavirus cases, not the Adem Somyurek branch stacking affair. His net ratings on handling coronavirus fell sharply from +74 to +47.

NSW Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian had a +42 net approval, down from +46, with 68% satisfied and 26% dissatisfied. SA Liberal Premier Steven Marshall had a +52 net approval, up from +47, with 72% satisfied and 20% dissatisfied.

Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk continued to trail with a +24 net approval, though that was up eight points. 59% were satisfied and 35% dissatisfied. The Queensland election will be held in late October.

Scott Morrison had a +41 net approval in last Monday’s federal Newspoll. Palaszczuk trails Morrison, Andrews and Berejiklian are about level, Marshall is above him, and McGowan and Gutwein are far ahead.

A good US jobs report, but there’s a long way to go

The June US jobs report was released Thursday. 4.8 million jobs were created and the unemployment rate dropped 2.2% to 11.1%. While the unemployment rate is far better than the 14.7% in April, it is far worse than during a normal economy.

The employment population ratio – the percentage of eligible Americans that are employed – rose 1.8% in June to 54.6%. But at the lowest point of the recovery from the global financial crisis, the employment ratio was 58.2%.

The surveys used for the jobs report were conducted in mid-June, before the recent spike in US coronavirus cases, which peaked at over 57,000 on Thursday. This new spike may derail an economic recovery.

Author: Adrian Beaumont – Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne



Source link

Labor may hold Eden-Monaro by-election on preferences


Labor would seem very likely to narrowly keep Eden-Monaro but the results of the by-election will hinge on preference flows from the monumental quantity of early voters.

With just above 50 for every cent of the votes counted, Labor’s Kristy McBain is slightly ahead on 52.8 for every cent after projected choice flows.

Liberal Fiona Kotvojs is predicted to just take 47.2 for each cent of the two-social gathering favored vote.

But another 38 for each cent of the southeastern NSW electorate’s voters voted early and their ballots are nevertheless remaining counted, although 15 for each cent designed postal votes.

“It is just this sort of an uncommon circumstance mainly because of COVID and just so a lot of people have voted pre-poll,” deputy Labor leader Richard Marles told Sky News.

“At the finish of the working day, whatsoever comes out of those people big pre-polls is what’s going to establish it.”

So considerably, Labor’s key vote is down much more than 4 details on its 2019 election outcome and the Liberals have also had a small swing against them.

The Greens’ key vote has also dropped, by 3.4 points.

Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro Fiona Kotvojs votes at Jerrabomberra Public Faculty polling station, north of Queanbeyan, NSW.

AAP

But Labor appears to be choosing up great preference flows from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers celebration and the Assist Conclude Marijuana Prohibition party.

Liberal frontbencher Angus Taylor said the results appeared quite limited.

“This is a really odd form of coalition Labor seems to be forming to check out and guard Albanese,” he mentioned.

“It tells you Labor has a true issue, their most important vote is down to extremely harmful territory below.”

NSW Deputy Leading John Barilaro, who in the beginning considered operating in the by-election for the Nationals, stated there hadn’t been a perception of anger from voters heading to the booths on polling day.

But Labor frontbencher Kristina Keneally stated a dropping principal vote was to be predicted when the celebration experienced misplaced a well known member.

The by-election was activated when revered Labor member Mike Kelly resigned from parliament owing to health and fitness concerns, getting pipped Ms Kotvojs in 2019.

“We’re seeing definitely that you will find not a ton of thumping praise for the Liberal governing administration taking place here,” Senator Keneally instructed ABC Information.

Labor candidate for Eden-Monaro Kristy McBain casts her vote at Merimbula Primary School in Merimbula, NSW.

Labor prospect for Eden-Monaro Kristy McBain casts her vote at Merimbula Principal Faculty in Merimbula, NSW.

AAP

As the polls closed, Ms McBain tweeted her many thanks to supporters.

“No matter what comes about, I am so very pleased of the favourable marketing campaign we have operate to make confident that Eden-Monaro is not still left at the rear of,” she wrote.

“I could not have accomplished it with no you.”

Nationals candidate Trevor Hicks, pictured with his wife Julie, vote at Queanbeyan East Public School.

Nationals applicant Trevor Hicks, pictured with his wife Julie, vote at Queanbeyan East Community College.

Fb/Trevor Hicks

Dr Kotvojs reported the citizens needs to be rebuilt immediately after a challenging six months.

“People will need to believe about which of the candidates is ready to be a robust voice in federal government,” she explained to reporters just after casting her vote at a Jerrabomberra polling booth.

Nationals applicant Trevor Hicks conceded defeat around 9pm, with the Nationals getting only 5.5 per cent of the vote.  

6 January 2020: Eden citizens ‘dodge large bullet’

Individuals in Australia ought to stay at least 1.5 metres absent from other people. Verify your state’s limitations on collecting limitations.

Screening for coronavirus is now commonly offered throughout Australia. If you are encountering cold or flu signs, prepare a exam by calling your physician or make contact with the Coronavirus Well being Information and facts Hotline on 1800 020 080.

The federal government’s coronavirus tracing application COVIDSafe is offered for obtain from your phone’s application keep.

SBS is dedicated to informing Australia’s numerous communities about the most up-to-date COVID-19 developments. News and information and facts is out there in 63 languages at sbs.com.au/coronavirus





Supply website link