Coolmore filly Personal claimed the VRC Oaks (2500m) on Thursday, storming over the top of Salto Angel and odds-on pop Montefilia.
Damien Oliver chalked up his 122nd career Group One with a well-timed ride to pick off the Danny O’Brien-trained Salto Angel – thwarting the stable for whom he won the Oaks for last year aboard Miami Bound.
It was a momentous Group One win for the Lindsay Park duo of Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes, being their first success at the top level without the now Hong Kong-based David Hayes.
Race favourite Montefilia was in a duelling battle for most of the long Flemington straight but fell short of a third G1 success.
“I’ve got to send a shout-out to [racing manager] Rayan Moore, he hasn’t been feeling well, they actually took him to hospital in an ambulance so hopefully this cheers him up,” Dabernig told Racing.com post-race.
“The reports are that he’s going to be OK, but we’re all feeling for him – he puts in a lot of work behind the scenes.
“Back to the win, I’m very proud of the filly – it’s been a process, but she keeps running well.
“I’m thrilled for Ollie – I’ve known him since I was a teenager, and I think we needed all his experience and vigour late to get her home, but she ended up winning by a length on the line.
“It’s a massive thrill.”
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Jockey Damien Oliver has captured his sixth VRC Oaks win after riding Personal to victory in the Group One fillies classic at Flemington.
Key points:
Personal beat Salto Angel and Montefilia home to win the 2,500-metre Group One race
It was Oliver’s 122nd Group One victory and the first for trainers Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes
The Oaks was Personal’s second win in nine starts
It was Oliver’s 122nd Group One victory and the 23rd elite win in his Melbourne Cup Carnival career.
Only Bobbie Lewis, with seven VRC Oaks and 24 Group One Melbourne Cup Carnival wins, is in front of Oliver in both fields.
Personal’s win was also the first Group One victory for the training team of Tom Dabernig and his cousin Ben Hayes.
It was a textbook Oliver ride over 2,500 metres, as he eased Personal back at the start into fourth-last position and kept creeping up out wide before the turn.
It appeared Salto Angel and Montefilia would fight the race out but Personal grabbed them with 100 metres to go and hit the front with 50 metres remaining.
Personal defeated Salto Angel by one-and-a-quarter lengths, with Montefilia placing third.
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“It was a real slog, the last four or five hundred metres with the second and third horses,” Oliver said.
“She’s had a great prep and hadn’t been able to win but she’s won the one that mattered. She’s was really tough and it was a good win.”
Oliver said that Personal had peaked physically on the day, which was a credit to Dabernig and Hayes.
The pair took over the training of Lindsay Park when Hayes’s father David relocated to Hong Kong in the middle of the year.
The VRC Oaks was Personal’s second win in nine starts.
“She can sprint and stay and she’s got some magnificent attributes,” Dabernig said.
“I think we haven’t seen the best of her yet. I think there is still more to come.”
Lindsay Park filly Personal has won the Group 1 VRC Oaks at Flemington.
Unleashed by Damien Oliver at the clocktower, the Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes-trained Personal outstayed her rivals to beat home Salto Angel and odds-on favourite Monteffilla in the feature race on the Thursday program.
It was the co-trainer’s first Group 1 success together since David Hayes departed to take up residency in Hong Kong.
“They delivered the goods. Probably gave me as big a thrill as any of my Group 1 wins. It was a great achievement from them and the whole team,” a visibly proud David Hayes said from Hong Kong.
Cup Day was brutal for my selections with the first two key selections Joviality and Tavidance never off the bit and running into dead ends wherever the jockeys chose to go. A few other selections simply did not perform to my expectations and were poor selections.
I must say I am a little surprised that not more was asked of the ride on Joviality by the stewards but it is they that have the experience in their jobs so we have to accept the bounce of the ball, albeit the bounce was not kind on this occasion.
Both Joviality and Tavidance certainly go into the blackbook, when horses go to the line untested, retaining that energy, I like to see them backed up quickly.
The track for Oaks Day has come up a soft 5, with cool and partly cloudy weather the track will retain plenty of moisture. The inside may be some query by the later races. The wind does not appear to be an issue for the day, but always monitor
VRC OAKS
Montefilia brings clearly the best ratings to the race having stepped to consecutive personal bests in winning the Flight Stakes and Spring Champion. The Spring Champion was against the boys also so adds merit to the effort. She is the clear favourite and deservedly against a rating I have of $1.60.
The second and third favourites Personal and Miravalle both back up from the Wakeful on Saturday won by Victoria Quay. Personal has had a consistent preparation with second place finishes in the 1000 Guineas and the Wakeful. The question is can she take the added step that she needs to win this race. I am leaning to no she can’t take a step big enough to worry Montefilia.
Miravalle was an excellent Oaks trial in the Wakeful. She ran the ninth fastest last 400m of the day. She was ridden cold and so was entitled to sprint hard.
Whichever way I look at I cannot get the other pair to the rating I expect of Montefilia.
OTHER RACES
RACE 1
Couple of chances to upset the heavily backed favourite, November Dreaming, in this race.
Ocean’s Thirteen was very good winning at Ballarat two starts ago. She was no doubt assisted by the heavy track, but the run had plenty of merit. Subsequently she stretched right up to Group 3 company and was far from disgraced despite finishing seventh of 11. She maps to get a comfortable lead in this one and with first crack at the track there should be no issue.
Tralee Rose returned off a 152-day spell to easily win her maiden at Warrnambool. The margins were exaggerated due to the heavy track, but the effort was still very strong. Kerryn McEoy goes on in a positive move and she too maps to get a nice run just off the pace.
No great knock on November Dreaming. She rated fairly at Geelong winning first up, however she was entitled to win there having the race very much run to suit. She has won 2 from 2 second up so plenty of positive. She may have bottomed out now reaching the $2.50-2.60 mark. Against my $4.50 she is no value
RACE 4
Strongly with the ex-UK galloper Tinandali, now with the Maher/Eustace stable. His last five runs have been in near identical ratings. If he rates to his UK personal best, he is a genuine odds-on chance. If he regresses by two lengths he still represents good value. Clearly top pick in a very winnable race.
RACE 6
Having trouble getting early-favourite I Am Eloquent to the market price in this race. Her last effort behind Sovereign Award was sound but hardly one that rates clearly superior to this field. I am not surprised by her drift so far and expect it to keep going. There is still some value around her despite the market realigning.
My biggest pair of overlays are Akari ($6.5) and Miss Inbetween ($7). Akari has been somewhat out of form and not won for nine starts. She did however win over 1400m here last Spring and can bounce back to that effort. Miss Inbetween was no match for Yes Baby Yes and Ecumencial last start, both of whom are very progressive horses. She will sit right on speed and potentially off the rail which may be important by this race.
Rocha Clock would be a bet if she reached around $4.50-5 which is not out of the question.
RACE 8
Much has been made of the recent wins by Written Beauty. She has been ultra-impressive to the eye, backed up by the times and sectionals she has been setting. There is an argument that she won against the bias last start to add greater merit. Once again, a favourite I cannot get to the market price.
I like the look of Minhaaj on the back of a pair of sound efforts behind September Run in her last two starts beaten 1.4 lengths and 1.2 lengths. She gets blinkers on for the first time and has the added advantage of several strong figures up the Flemington straight.
Chianti was well beaten by the favourite two starts back at Canterbury. She comes into this with a 5kg pull in the weights so is some chance. The other decent overlay looks to be the untapped Amuri. She was far from disgraced in the Cap D’antibes despite finishing well back. She then went home and was very impressive winning her maiden in good figures.
There are other chances, so I am surprised at the price of the favourite. One I might likely lay on Betfair.
PRO PUNTER FLEMINGTON BETTING STRATEGY (100 units)
Now, we all know we have Derbies around the world – for the best staying three-year-olds of both genders – thanks to the 12th Earl of Derby, who came up with the idea for the race in at a booze-up in 1780 (because no good ideas were ever hatched over a salad).
But how do we get the fillies-only equivalent, a race called The Oaks?
The 12th Earl of Derby of course.
This guy! Did he have an influence on global horse racing or what?
In fact, The Oaks came first. The aforementioned Derby-spawning soiree was held to celebrate the running of the first Oaks, in 1779. That was another idea by the Earl, to start a new race for which he’d put up the money. Why name a classic after a bunch of trees, rather than say, after a drinking vessel? The Earl lived on an estate, just to the east of Epsom Racecourse where the race would end up being run, called The Oaks.
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Party continues for Cup champ
1:27
And thus, the feature race for three-year-old staying fillies on racing calendars throughout the world are so named. And Australia is having its main one tomorrow at Flemington, on VRC Oaks Day, fittingly enough.
The day has also become a highlight of the annual social calendar. It’s dubbed Ladies Day, because on the biggest day of the season for well turned-out fillies, it attracts a lot of well-dressed women. And where there are lots of women, what else do you find? Yes, it’s also become known as Blokes Day.
In any event, none of that sort of thing will be happening this year, in the year of Covid, with about 100,000 fewer people at Flemington than normal. But the races will still be on, and it’s a full nine-race card to be had.
There are a handful of Black Type events, the classy sort that go into yearling sales catalogues in, err, black type, to highlight what the parents and relatives of a yearling achieved on the track. There’s also a touch of novelty, in the annual race restricted to grey horses, which looks ghostly indeed, and which is now named after one of Australia’s most famous greys, Subzero, the 1992 Melbourne Cup winner who died this year aged 32.
But the highlight, of course, will be The Oaks, over 2500m, and worth $1 million. As Derbies can achieve for colts in their stud career, Oaks victories let fillies show their stuff and will set them up for a lucrative life in the breeding barn. For an example, Samantha Miss won The Oaks in 2008, pocketed the $605,000 prizemoney, and was later sold to become a breeding mare for an Australasian record broodmare price of $3.85 million. (She did win a few other races as well mind you). Rose Of Kingston won in 1981 went on to have a son called Kingston Rule, who still holds the record for the fastest Melbourne Cup, which he won in 1990.
But it’s not just about breeding. The race has launched the racing career of a thousand staying mares. Miami Bound, for example, won it last year and contested Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Jameka won in 2015 and took out the following year’s Caulfield Cup. Verry Elleegant ran seventh in 2018 and has kicked on, winning this year’s Caulfield Cup among several G1s.
There’s a quality 14-field assembled for the main event, which is a Group 1, restricted to fillies. This is a quirk of racing strictures to which some object: why are fillies allowed into derbies, but colts cant enter oaks-es? It just is, and it’s not all that relevant, as fillies don’t win derbies that often.
The VRC Oaks is also ancient. It’s as old as the Melbourne Cup in fact, having been first run in 1861, but a few years younger than the VRC Derby, Australia’s oldest big race. And it’s been won by some of the all-time greats. Let’s take a look.
WHAT IS IT?
The VRC Oaks, now known by a sponsors’ name in the Kennedy Oaks, a set weights event for three-year-old fillies, in which everyone carries 56kg.
Though Oaks races and Derbies throughout the world are generally run over 2400m, Flemington’s was changed to 2500m in 1973 because the 2400m start was a tad too close to the turn out of the home straight, inciting mayhem as horses tried to settle into a running position.
WHAT’S IT WORTH?
As Dr Evil might say – one million dollars!
OK, that’s not much when compared to some of the filthy lucre being spewed out in Sydney on Mr V’Landys’ watch these days, but it’s not always about money, Peter. There’s prestige and history involved, and breeding value.
WHEN’S IT ON?
Race 8 on the card at 5.10pm (AEDT).
WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?
It’s on Channel 10, Racing.com or Sky Racing. Foxsports.com.au will have live news and updates, including video soon after the race. You can’t get into the racecourse, but you can stand along the banks of the Maribyrnong River to see them run past for a bit, like quite a few people did on Cup day, like sad, forlorn children staring into a locked-down Disneyland.
MAIN PLOTLINES
In a race all about future breeding, most eyes will be on Montefilia. She’s emerged as the most exciting three-year-old filly in the land, having won two Group 1s in Sydney at her past two starts, over 1600m and up to 2000m. Will she able to handle the extra 500m? Well, breeding suggests she will.
There’s a juicy little pedigree angle here. Montefilia’s dad is the former very good Chris Waller-trained galloper Kermadec, who’s now two crops of horses into his breeding career, and an Oaks win would put a large feather in his cap. Kermadec’s dad is the very good Irish stallion Teofilo, the sire of Tuesday’s Cup winner, Twilight Payment.
Montefilia is an odds-on favourite, but several of these have come unstuck attempting the 2500m test at this stage of their lives, having only turned three on August 1.
Second-favourite is Personal, to be ridden by Damien Oliver, who was second in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes, the race which was the lead-up for several Oaks runners.
Race favourite breaks down
0:38
FIRST WINNER
Palestine, in 1861.
LAST WINNER
Miami Bound
FAMOUS WINNERS
Jameka (2015), Samantha Miss (2008), Miss Finland (2006), Research (1988), Rose Of Kingston (1981), Surround (1976), Light Fingers 1964 (Melbourne Cup winner the next year), Furious (1921), Briseis (1876).
OTHER RACES ON THE UNDERCARD
Race 2: Ottawa Stakes (1000m), a Group 3 race for 2yo fillies, 1.15pm.
Race 3: Century Stakes (1000m), a Listed race for everyone three years old and up, 1:55pm.
Race 5: The Subzero Handicap (1400m), it’s not black type but it’s only open to greys and is quite the sight, 3:15pm.
Race 9: Red Roses Stakes (1100m), a Group 3 sprint for 3yo fillies, 5:50pm.
FOR: Shapes up as the classiest 3yo filly in the country at present. Trained in Sydney by David Payne, this filly is bred to do well. Her dad is Kermadec, who won two big Group 1s in Sydney in the Doncaster and George Main Stakes, and who was by Teofilo, as mentioned. On Montefilia’s maternal side, she’s out of a British mare, which is always good for staying (long distance) blood, and that mare’s dad was Shirocco, sire of Melbourne Cup folk hero Prince Of Arran. Anyway, bloodlines can count for nothing if a horse can’t gallop, but Montefilia has shown she can, winning two Group 1s in the Flight Stakes (1600m) and Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) in back-to-back Saturdays last month. Also has Hugh Bowman on her back, who knows how to win a big one.
AGAINST: This has been a dodgy race for favourites lately, especially odds-on faves, and better for second or third-favourites. Miami Bound was second-favourite in winning last year while the $3.80 favourite Gamay came fifth. Amphitrite ran last at odds-on in 2018 while third-fave Aristia won. Aloisia was $1.80 in 2017 and ran sixth while second-fave Pinot won. And in 2016, Yankee Rose was a certainty at $1.95 and came second-last, while Lasqueti Spirit won, and won easily, at $101. So a certain amount of faith is needed to be convinced Montefilia, or any of these, can run out 2500m in decent style. But exposed form is all we have, and that points strongly to her being the last filly standing.
2. PERSONAL (10) $6 / $1.75.
FOR: Strong stable in Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes. Great jockey in Damien Oliver, who’s won two of the past five. Has been building up to this, working home well to come second at her past three starts – at 1400m, 1600m, and the 2000m of the main Melbourne lead-up (last Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes). She kept coming when beaten only a neck in that race, suggesting she can run 2500m. Her mum was by the great European sire Galileo, which also augurs well for her chances of running out the trip. Ranks as second-favourite, and they have a good recent record in this.
AGAINST: Has a bit of tricky barrier in 10 of 14, and it could be hard for Oliver to get near the rail making the first bend.
3. CAFÉ RIZU (14) ($31 / $5.50).
FOR: Has won at the track, hinting at staying potential in taking an 1800m event in August and beating male horses to boot. Good, experienced jockey in Craig Newitt. Top stable in Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr, and was doing her best work at the finish when seventh at Caulfield last start over 2000m in a key lead-up race, the Ethereal Stakes, coming from 16th with only 400m to go to be beaten by 4.8len.
AGAINST: Has the widest barrier, but that might not be so bad, since she’s been settling at the back of the field lately, to help her relax and run like a stayer. Could be a decent longshot.
4. SUCCEED INDEED (13) $35 / $6.
FOR: Is from the Team Corstens stable, which has been going alright lately, and has the experienced Mark Zahra on board, who won the Caulfield Cup last month on Verry Elleegant. Gets the blinkers on for the first time, which should help her settle nicely and hopefully run out the distance, after she didn’t settle well last start in the Wakeful. Has run at 2000m at her past two starts, and has had five runs this preparation, so has plenty of miles in her legs.
AGAINST: Didn’t really hit the line at the finish of the Wakeful, and while she should settle better with the blinkers on, you wonder about her capacity to run an extra 500m here. Also has a tricky barrier.
5. SALTO ANGEL (9) $27 / $4.80.
FOR: From the formidable Danny O’Brien stable and with big race jockey Damian Lane aboard. Went OK for fifth in the Wakeful, and had excuses, when forced to race three and four wide for the trip, and carted very wide on the home bend. Before that was a good second (1.75len), also over 2000m in the Ethereal, so is another who has miles in her legs.
AGAINST: Slightly awkward barrier, but should be able to get near the rail in a race this long. Place hope.
Miravalle is one of the favourites for the race.Source: Getty Images
6. MIRAVALLE (6) $7 / $1.95.
FOR: Ran close to the run of the race when fourth in the Wakeful, flashing home at the end from 12th at the 400m. That suggests strong she’ll run out the 2500m. She also finished over the top of rivals here like Salto Angel and Succeed Indeed. Is a Sydney horse and they have had an edge over their southern rivals in recent spring carnivals. (One theory is they get a less harsh winter). Craig Williams in the saddle and Mark Newnham is a decent trainer.
AGAINST: Lining her up against the favourite, this filly was only sixth to Montefilia, beaten almost six lengths, in the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick last month, on a good track, as it should be at Flemington on Thursday. She did at least make ground from 11th on the turn in that race. But can she make up that gap here over the extra 500m?
7. TYCHE GODDESS (3) $17 / $3.80.
FOR: Great jockey in Kerrin McEvoy and an in-form stable in Busuttin-Young, and a soft inside barrier. Tuned up OK with a third in the Wakeful, in her only start at Flemington to date. Sire is Teofilo, who’s son Twilight Payment stayed the trip to win Tuesday’s Big Cup.
AGAINST: Was weakening at the finish of the Wakeful, raising doubts about the extra distance. That was her first step up to 2000m, and while she’ll take a fitness benefit because of that that, others have more miles in their legs, in what is traditionally a race laced with doubt about who can go the furthest.
8. BIARCHI (1) $61 / $11.
FOR: Barrier one is handy, and she’s won her past two starts, both at 1800m and on good tracks. John Allen’s a solid jockey.
AGAINST: Those past two starts were at Murray Bridge – a maiden – and Morphettville, Adelaide, in a low-quality race. Starting her in this Group 1 is what in racing parlance is known as “a shot at the stumps”. Well, cricket-turned-racing parlance.
9. STAR OF EDEN (2) $26 / $4.80.
FOR: Has been placed in all three starts and tuned up well with a third over 2000m at Caulfield last start in the Ethereal, when she stuck on from third at the turn. Nice barrier and a gun jockey in Billy Egan, about the only jock in the land who rides with his sleeves pushed up, like he means business. Trainer Mike Moroney has a good record with stayers.
AGAINST: Has only had those three career starts leading into this so could be a bit raw to run out this trip in strong style.
10. ART GLASS (12) $126 / $21
FOR: Hmmm… Has William Pike in the saddle, and trainer Grahame Begg is the son of Neville Begg, who was a master of training fillies. A 100-1 pop won this race in Lasqueti Spirit four years ago, so there’s hope for the battler.
AGAINST: Just the way she’s been running really. Has had four runs this prep including a 13th, and two 11ths, one of them last start in the Ethereal. Before that she won a maiden at Geelong over 2265m, but that was on a heavy track. Needs it to bucket down, but it probably won’t.
11. VILANCULOS (7) $34 / $6.
FOR: Jamie Kah is the main thing. She could win on a lot of things these days. And trainer Danny O’Brien won this last year with Miami Bound. The filly’s been placed in the last three of her four starts, and tuned up well when third in the Geelong Classic, a lead-up to this, over 2200m. That’s further than most in this race have been. Winkers go on, which should ensure she settles nicely.
AGAINST: Has yet to show she can stick her nose out on the line, and hasn’t raced in town yet. A step up up in class, but not the worst. Each way.
12. HARD SQUEEZE (8) $81 / $15.
FOR: Is a last-start winner, and bolted in there by five lengths in fact, over 2124m. Is raced in the Sangster colours – started by the famous Robert Sangster, now carried on by his Australia-based son Adam – which have been carried to victory in some of the world’s biggest races.
AGAINST: That five length win was on the unhallowed turf of Echuca, and came in a highweight maiden, races generally put on for ordinary gallopers.
13. YATTON (4) $46 / $8.
FOR: Has Jye McNeil in the saddle, a very promising young jockey who is on the crest of a wave after expertly winning the Big Cup on Tuesday. Came fourth at only start at Flemington.
AGAINST: Was a poor 10th last start in the Ethereal. Would need to improve.
14. SWINDON LASS (11) $201 / $34.
FOR: Is in the field, and the oldest of sayings goes that you can’t win if you’re not in the field. If you’re keen, look to her fifth of 13, beaten 2len, two runs back over 1800m at Flemington.
AGAINST: Finished 12th last start in the Ethereal. Would need to lift a lot.
Oaks Day plays host to Round 8 of SuperCoach Racing and the Group 1 headlines the day with two Group 3 races playing the support roles.
Once again I have put every race through my metric with the aim of finding those runners who meet the sweet spot of being well liked in the market and well priced in the game.
Let’s get to it.
* * * This story has been updated to reflect scratchings as they stand at 7:35am on Thursday morning * * *
THE OAKS (Group 1)
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Miami Bound
$150,000
$3.60
0.54
Moonlight Maid
$150,000
$4
0.6
Vegas Jewel
$150,000
$4
0.6
Gamay
$150,000
$6
0.9
Beauty Bolt
$125,000
$14
1.75
ANALYSIS
The lone Group 1 on the card means you will be sure to take at least two in the race. However, with the market struggling to split the three leading contenders and their cheap price I’ll likely take Miami Bound, Moonlight Maid and Vegas Jewel and then my only decision point will be who to captain.
MARIBYRNONG PLATE (Group 3)
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Arctic Ice
$50,000
$6
0.3
0.51
Tagaloa
$125,000
$5
0.62
1.06
Castlecomer
$100,000
$6.50
0.65
1.11
Rathlin
$125,000
$5.50
0.69
1.17
Jerle
$75,000
$10
0.75
1.28
ANALYSIS
She’s just $50K, flew home to nab third at her first start at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and boasts the second best metric score of any horse this round so Arctic Ice is a lock for mine. nothing separates the next three so if you have strong mail for any one of Tagaloa, Castlecomer or Rathlin you could throw one of them in.
RED ROSES PLATE (Group 3)
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
California Zimbol
$100,000
$2
0.2
0.34
Absolute Flirt
$175,000
$7.50
1.31
2.23
Taraayef
$175,000
$10
1.75
2.98
Still Single
$75,000
$26
1.95
3.32
Wayupinthesky
$150,000
$14
2.1
3.57
ANALYSIS
California Zimbol is the best horse in the metric this round, and considering she boasts a last-start win over Loving Gaby (who went on to win the Group 1 Manikato Stakes) it’s easy to see why. It’s hard to make a case to buy any others in this race.
TWITTER TROPHY
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Impi
$150,000
$1.60
0.24
0.53
Mr Money Bagst
$200,000
$7
1.4
3.01
Main Stage
$175,000
$8.50
1.49
3.29
Savaheat
$175,000
$14
2.45
5.41
Midas Prince
$175,000
$15
2.63
5.80
ANALYSIS
Impi steps out to 1800m for the first time but the lightly raced gelding boasts three wins from four starts and has been absolutely crunched in the betting early indicating punters are confident he’ll see the trip out. No other horse in the field makes the top-25 by metric for the day so I’ll take the favourite and move on.
SUBZERO HANDICAP
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Bumper Blast
$125,000
$3.10
0.39
0.86
Platinum Angel
$225,000
$4
0.9
1.99
Rainmoth
$175,000
$7
1.23
2.71
Mr Tipla
$175,000
$8
1.4
3.09
Sir Simon
$175,000
$8
1.4
3.09
ANALYSIS
This race offers a choice between the lightly raced Bumper Blast who won his maiden by 6.75 lengths at last start or the vastly more experienced mare Platinum Angel who rarely wins but finished a head second in the Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes (1400m) in her last preparation. With so many cheapies available this round salary cap constraints really aren’t an issue but I’ll stick with Bumper Blast.
BUMBLE TROPHY
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Nudge
$100,000
$4.60
0.46
1.02
Affair To Remember
$100,000
$8.50
0.85
1.89
So You Swing
$150,000
$7.50
1.13
2.49
Loveseat
$150,000
$8.50
1.28
2.82
Sovereign Award
$150,000
$8.50
1.28
2.82
ANALYSIS
Favourite Nudge finished third in the Group 2 Fillies Classic at her last start and the Waller trained youngster is the horse I’ll be taking out of this race.
CENTURY STAKES
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Ball Of Muscle
$400,000
$3.30
1.32
2.92
Plague Stone
$250,000
$6
1.5
3.32
Soothing
$275,000
$5.50
1.51
3.34
Bella Vella
$175,000
$10
1.75
3.87
Equal Love
$200,000
$9
1.8
3.98
ANALYSIS
Welcome to the stable Ball Of Muscle. I know this makes no sense when you look at the metric but sometimes you just have to stick to your favourites and I’ve been a long time fan of this Joe Pride veteran.
COUNTRY FINAL
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Harbour Views
$175,000
$2.30
0.40
0.89
O’Tauto
$175,000
$4.60
0.81
1.78
Star Missile
$150,000
$7.50
1.13
2.49
Starspangled Rodeo
$175,000
$10
1.75
3.87
Blinder
$150,000
$18
2.7
5.97
ANALYSIS
The unbeaten Harbour Views is getting up in weight now with 61.5kg and despite the metric telling me to do otherwise I’m tempted to take him on. The second horse in my metric is O’Tauto and he gets a 1kg pull in the weights from his last start loss (by 0.2 lengths) to Harbour Views, has a G3 place to his name and has good form second up.
TCL TV STAKES
Horse
SC Price
Early Odds
Metric Rank (score)
Metric multiplied to G1 level
Russian Camelot
$125,000
$2.50
0.32
0.69
Pancho
$200,000
$3.20
0.64
1.41
Highland Jakk
$100,000
$8
0.8
1.77
Quick Thinker
$175,000
$5
0.88
1.93
Power Scheme
$125,000
$18
2.25
4.97
ANALYSIS
He’s a northern hemisphere two-year-old but Russian Camelot had no trouble whatsoever with a field of horses six months his senior when winning his first race in Australia. The second horse in our metric is Pancho who finished second to Kubrick (and defeated some smart youngsters in Just Thinkin’ and Bottega) in the $1 million Bondi Stakes at his last start. I’ve only got room for one in my stable and at this point am leaning towards Russian Camelot simply on the early market but will be watching to see if money moves to Pancho.
JOCKEYS
Jockey
Rides
Under $5
Under $10
Average Odds
Craig Williams
7
1
4
$11.24
Damien Oliver
6
4
4
$15.72
Damian Lane
6
0
3
$11.33
Kerrin McEvoy
5
2
2
$22.35
ANALYSIS
None of the top hoops are riding the card this round leaving us with an intriguing choice. Craig Williams has the biggest book of the big names. Damien Oliver has one less ride but probably the most even book (his average odds are blow out by $67 chance Eastern Wind in the second race of the day). Kerrin McEvoy has just five rides, but the two hottest favourites of the day in Impi and California Zimbol. I think I’ll stick with Ollie as both McEvoy favourites are already in my stable.
As we reach the penultimate round of the first season of SuperCoach Racing, there are still plenty of points to take home as Round 8 has a 48-hour turnaround with Oaks Day at Flemington.
By now, SuperCoaches will have more than their $2 million starting allowance, and for many inside the top 1,000 that bank budget goes up to and in some cases exceeds $2.6 million.
This round is absolutely full of cheapies, so don’t panic if you’ve still got a lazy million sitting on your bench. There are no massive ‘big guns’ going around this round (in terms of SuperCoach pricing) that feature in group races. In fact, the four biggest chances to claim The Oaks are each priced at $150,000 each.
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Strategy will be key this week. Its worthwhile noting there is plenty to be said about taking three or four chances into the only G1 of the day, and two each in the other group races.
THE OAKS
We’ve all ridden the MIAMI BOUND ($150,000) wave this SuperCoach season, having no finish worse than fourth from its three runs so far this carnival. Damien Oliver loves this horse and it heads into The Oaks as the standout favourite among punters and at that SuperCoach pricepoint for G1 points, it’s a must-start.
Keeping with the United States theme, VEGAS JEWEL ($150,000) will think it’s more than capable of winning this. She won her first two career starts before finishing runner-up in the Ethereal (to Gamay) and Wakeful Stakes (to Miami Bound) at last two starts. She’s bred to run out the trip although she will need a touch of luck from the gate she’s drawn.
Speaking of GAMAY ($150,000), it has won two from it’s last three including beating out Vegas Jewel in the Ethereal. She’ll launch from the inside gate and is a really good chance to run out the trip. A favourite of mine, MOONLIGHT MAID ($150,000), who won the Edward Manifold two back before finishing second in the Moonee Valley Vase last start and while this is a slight step up in distance, I don’t think it’ll worry her too much. FOXBOROUGH ($75,000) is a cheapie but it was well beaten in the Wakeful Stakes. It did finish third in the G1 Flight Stakes three runs back but it has always appealed as a stayer he’s worthwhile considering for your stable.
G3 MARIBYRNONG PLATE
The Maribyrnong Plate is value galore. Cheapie of the day ARCTIC ICE ($50,000) was unlucky on debut at The Valley when finishing a close third after being held up which means it can only benefit from the experience and looks well placed to break through for a win here. Another cheap option will JERLE ($75,000) who was probably a run short when he finished second on debut at Flemington. He’s a winning chance with the benefit of race experience and the blinkers on for the first time. At the same price point is BAAQYAH ($75,000) who is a daughter of I Am Invincible. She’s on debut here and the polish and success of Hayes and Dabernig means she cannot be ignored. BOOM DADDY ($75,000) placed at Flemington on debut before winning at Bendigo last start. The one I am keen on is TAGALOA ($125,000) who has tongues wagging after a very impressive trial and with Nash Rawiller on board, anything can happen.
G3 RED ROSES STAKES
Lock in CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL ($100,000) into your teams as a solid cheapie who could take out the Red Rose Stakes. It beat G1 winner Loving Gabby in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Caulfield last start, and while the weight could be a query, at that price, I’ll happily roll with it.
I don’t mind ABSOLUTE FLIRT ($175,000) who looks fresher coming back to the 1100m but there’s better value to be had elsewhere. WITCHFULTHINKING ($125,000) resumes without a trial but was a Wangaratta winner on debut before a close third at Flemington in two first preparation runs. SuperCoaches will note that TENLEY ($150,000) is going around for its third go of the Carnival but I don’t quite like its chances here. It’s at the top of the weights and even though it has drawn perfectly, the three-year-old finished seventh last start in the Thousand Guineas and down in distance here.
Sir Simon holding out the opposition in Launceston last season.Source: Supplied
THE GREYS RACE
No, it’s not a group race, but it should be! The famous greys race is the most iconic part of the day at Flemington, and away from the dazzling lights of the G1 races, it’s my favourite race of the entire carnival.
If you’re a Taswegian or just enjoy the Apple Isle, then SIR SIMON ($175,000) will be in your wheelhouse. He’ll be looking to make it four in a row after another win at Launceston last start and hoop Sigrid Carr has a strike rate of 28% for this trainer. SOMETHING SILVER ($175,000) has been taking on better quality than this in other lead up races and she came two lengths short of claiming the G2 Stocks Stakes earlier in her campaign. PLATINUM ANGEL ($225,000) is pricey for a low-points race. However, it didn’t get much room in the straight when unplaced in the Northwood Plume at Caulfield last start. She would only need to replicate her runner-up finish at Caulfield resuming two back to be the one to beat.
John Allen rode Harbour Views to victory the MCC Country Series Heat 6, during the Geelong Cup Day at Geelong racecourse on Wednesday, October 24, 2019Source: AAP
THE MELBOURNE CUP COUNTRY CUP FINAL
A race I do look forward to each year is the Melbourne Cup Country Cup (MCCC) Final in Race 6. Essentially, it’s the best of the bush, fighting it out at headquarters. It’s only open to country trainers who do not have a metropolitan base and there are a series of eight races from everywhere from Murtoa to Hamilton and Sale to Seymour. Winners and placings get their chance to race in the city in what’s a great initiative.
HARBOUR VIEWS ($175,000) has been all the rage on the country Victorian tracks and won its way through after winning at Geelong in fine fashion and as such goes in favourite. Half a length behind it was O’TAUTO ($175,000) who hit the line strongly when a half-length second. STAR MISSILE ($175,000) made a winning return to racing with a strong win at Sale resuming last start. He’s won second-up previously and is a winning hope again.
THE OTHER RACES
While I won’t go through and digest race by race, there are a few horses who have caught my eye on Oaks Day.
In the first race of the day at Flemington, it’s a 10-horse race so guaranteed points. IMPI ($150,000) could get things off to a flyer for stables in Race 1 as the Pat Carey-trained finished a close third in the Country Series heat on Geelong Cup Day and travelled well on speed. Stepping up in distance means the extra travel will be a big positive and he’s the standout in this field for mine.
Craig Williams aboard Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare (left) and Brett Prebble riding Sovereign Award during a trackwork session at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne, Tuesday, October 29, 2019Source: News Regional Media
Race 4 is a super competitive field. In fact, it’ll be tough to pick a winner in this race so I am personally avoiding it in SuperCoach realms given how many runners will line up. There are a few that stand out to me. SOVEREIGN AWARD ($150,000) is the daughter of 2013 Cox Plate winner Shamus Award and is trained by recently-crowned Melbourne Cup trainer, Danny O’Brien. She’ll be tough to chase down on an even speed. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER ($100,000) is worth considering after she got her campaign off to a flyer. She looks dangerous and is bottom weight.
Race 5 isn’t giving me much either. CRYSTAL DREAMER ($300,000) is too pricey for a race that offers low points and no bank. I’m also a fan of BALL OF MUSCLE ($400,000) but he’s more expensive again! I’m avoiding this race on the basis of near-nothing value.
In Race 7 I really like PANCHO ($200,000) but the price is awkward (not that price is really an issue this round with all the value lying around). It won really well at Warwick Farm two back before producing the best race sectionals when a length second in the Bondi Stakes last start.
QUICK THINKER ($175,000) is the one I’ll be rolling with who’s campaign first time in Australia has been admirable. He won the Ming Dynasty Quality at his first Australian start three back before placing in the Gloaming and then was far from disgraced when he ran on fifth in the Spring Champion Stakes.
Damien Oliver looms as a likely jockey selection for SuperCoach Racing Round 8Source: Getty Images
JOCKEY SELECTION
DAMIEN OLIVER is my choice selection on Oaks Day, even though he let me down a touch on Melbourne Cup Day. ‘Ollie’ has favoured horses Miami Bound (The Oaks) and Absolute Flirt (Red Rose Stakes). He’s got a ride on Eastern Wind in the Maribyrnong but his other strong rides include Platinum Angel and O’Tauto for five rides. It’s not much, but that’s a strong batch of winning, if not placing chances.
After a memorable Melbourne Cup win with Vow And Declare, Danny O’Brien feels greedy even hoping to add the VRC Oaks with Miami Bound.
But the trainer is convinced Miami Bound has a great chance in Thursday’s $1 million race for three-year-old fillies after taking out one of the main lead-up races last Saturday.
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O’Brien claimed his first Melbourne Cup on Tuesday at his home track, with Vow And Declare lungeing late to win the country’s most famous race. The VRC Oaks (2500m) is the feature race on the third day of the four-meeting Cup carnival at Flemington and Miami Bound is $3.60 favourite.
“I feel a bit greedy even hoping for it,” O’Brien told reporters on Wednesday. “But we’re certainly going there with good expectations.
“We’re going in there with a filly that’s had a really good preparation for it.
“She’s been preparing for this all spring. Her run on Saturday was terrific in the Wakeful and it’s usually a good guide for the Thursday. So fingers crossed.”
Miami Bound will be striving to emulate her dam Arapaho Miss who won the Oaks in 2007 and O’Brien said the filly came out of her win in Saturday’s Group Two Wakeful over 2000m superbly.
“She’s a very tough filly,” he said.
“She pulled up really, really well. She’s going to go to the races tomorrow with no excuses.” Miami Bound defeated Vegas Jewel by a neck in the Wakeful with another six lengths to Palumbo third.
Vegas Jewel was equal second favourite on Wednesday at $4 alongride Moonlight Maid who won the Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington two starts ago before running second in the Group Two Vase (2040m) at The Valley.
While Craig Williams won the Cup on Vow And Declare, another of Melbourne’s champion riders, Damien Oliver, partners Miami Bound for O’Brien in the Oaks.
Last Saturday Oliver broke the record for the most Melbourne Cup carnival winners by a jockey with a winning double taking his tally to 74. He added another winner on Tuesday’s Cup day program.
Oliver is chasing his fifth VRC Oaks, with Jameka in 2015 his most recent, while O’Brien has yet to win the Oaks.
WHAT IS IT AND WHEN IS IT ON?
The $1 million Group One, 2500m race for three-year-old fillies at set weights will run as race eight at Flemington on Thursday, November 7, at 5.50pm AEDT.
AN EXPLAINER ON THE OAKS
History
* First run in 1861, the same year as the inaugural Melbourne Cup, and won by Palestine
* Lengthened from 12 furlongs (2400m) to 2500m in 1973
* In the past 32 years, 18 winners have also run in the Group Two Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day
* Four favourites have won in the past decade: Samantha Miss (2008), Faint Perfume (2009), Brazilian Pulse (2010) and Kirramosa (2013)
* Bart Cummings holds the training record with nine winners and Bobby Lewis has the jockey record of seven
* Gai Waterhouse became the first woman to train an Oaks winner with Pinot in 2017
* Also known as Ladies Day, Oaks Day is the most fashion-forward event of the Melbourne Cup carnival
Notable winners
* Briseis (1876), Furious (1921), Chicquita (1949), Evening Peal (1955), Light Fingers (1964), Toltrice (1972), Denise’s Joy (1975), Surround (1976), Scomeld (1978), Rose Of Kingston (1981), Research (1988), Slight Chance (1992), Grand Archway (1998), Serenade Rose (2005), Miss Finland (2006), Samantha Miss (2008), Mosheen (2011) and Jameka (2015)
Talking points
* Aristia won last year to claim her first Group One victory and complete the Wakeful Stakes-Oaks double
* Mathew Ellerton and Simon Zahra have no runner in Thursday’s race after winning last year’s race with Aristia
* Favourite Miami Bound ($3.60) edged out Vegas Jewel ($4) in the Wakeful Stakes, with the pair to fight it out again five days later
* Danny O’Brien trains Miami Bound, putting him contention for a Melbourne Cup-Oaks double
* Damien Oliver will ride Miami Bound and is chasing his fifth Oaks win
* Miami Bound can emulate her dam Arapaho Miss who won the Oaks 12 years ago
* John Sargent, who trained Kirramosa to victory in 2013, will saddle up Stick ‘Em Up and Foxborough, who finished fifth in the Wakeful Stakes
* Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Michelle Payne will ride Victory Approach, who she also trains
What some of the key players are saying
“I thought her run in the Wakeful was a pass mark. She pulled up well enough to go on to the Oaks and she has got a pedigree to run the trip” – Silent Sovereign’s trainer Tony McEvoy.
“She’s been preparing for this all spring. Her run on Saturday was terrific in the Wakeful and it’s usually a good guide for the Thursday. So fingers crossed” – Danny O’Brien on Miami Bound.
“I feel a bit greedy even hoping for it” Danny O’Brien who also trained Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare.
The Melbourne Cup takes centre stage on the Australian racing calendar each year but two days later the festive spirit was still in full swing at Flemington.
Punters braved the wet and wild weather in Victoria’s capital as they turned out in big numbers for Oaks Day, traditionally known as Ladies Day.
The event spruiks itself as being all about style, beauty and grace and while there were plenty of dapper gentlemen and fancy frocks flying around, things got a bit sloppy as the combination of champagne, rain and wind took full effect.
Thankfully for the masses, a few sprinkles didn’t dampen their mood.
Don’t worry about the hat flying off, as long as the champagne flute stays secure.Source: AAPGiddy up.Source: AAPSome racegoers went hunting for cover.Source: AAPWhile others were happy to sing in the rain.Source: Getty ImagesWe hope these blokes didn’t steal the top off one of the marquees.Source: AAPPonchos are always in fashion.Source: Getty ImagesOne of the great Australian traditions is kicking your heels off at the end of a hard day at the races.Source: Getty ImagesWe hope this lad had better luck on the punt than he did with his umbrella.Source: Getty ImagesOld mate on the left was having plenty of fun, but we’re not so sure about the girl on the right.Source: AAPNothing, not even Melbourne’s weather, was going to stop this group from enjoying a picnic.Source: Getty ImagesNot sure if Flemington or a nightclub.Source: AAPMake sure you can still breathe, fellas.Source: Getty Images
Punters always provide an interesting spectacle at the races but in the day’s main event, Miami Bound stole the show by winning the VCR Oaks.
The stayer gave trainer Danny O’Brien his second big win this week after his horse Vow and Declare stormed home to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.
Meticulous planning went into preparing Miami Bound for Thursday’s 2500m trip for three-year-old fillies and despite being a betting ring wobbler from $3.20 to $4.20, Miami Bound, under jockey Damien Oliver, showed her staying superiority.
She ran out a three-and-a-quarter length winner from Never Listen ($41) with Moonlight Maid ($4.80) two lengths away third.
“We had been building her all spring to get to 2500 (metres) and we knew once we took the wrapping off her at the 2500 she was really going to let go,” O’Brien said.
“It won’t be her last decent win and every time we run her at this type of distance, she’s going to be very hard to beat.”
Asked if Miami Bound could be a key contender at Flemington in 12 months, O’Brien was cautious.
“The (spring) three-year-old staying form doesn’t ultimately measure up to Caulfield and Melbourne Cups when we’ve got to take on the internationals,” he said.
Oliver rode O’Brien’s first Group One winner, Porto Roca in the 2001 Coolmore Classic at Rosehill.
The Oaks was their win first together at the elite level since that victory. Miami Bound provided Oliver with the two VRC Classics after riding Warning to win the Victoria Derby on Saturday.
While Oliver’s ride on Warning was perfectly judged, the jockey said his navigation on Miami Bound was not one his best.
“She threw me a bit before the race because she was stopping and not wanting to come back to the barriers,” Oliver said. “That just rattled me a little bit.
“She’s not normally like that but once I found the back of Vegas Jewel I was pretty comfortable in the run.
“A three-year-old at the distance for the first time left in front, you hope nothing is going to come at you.”
O’Brien and Oliver became the dream team on Thursday.Source: AAP
