Nifty: F&O: Nifty chart patterns show total bear grip on the market


By Chandan Taparia

Nifty opened positive on Wednesday and surpassed previous day’s high, but couldn’t hold at higher levels. It descended throughout the day to touch an intraday low of 11,685 before closing 160 points lower. The index formed a Bearish Engulfing and a Bearish Belt Hold kind of patterns on the daily scale, which signalled that the bears had a complete grip throughout the day.

The index has turned highly volatile in the last few sessions and got stuck in a wider trading range in which every decline got bought into, while multiple hurdles were intact in the 11,950-12,020 zone. Now, the index has to cross and hold above 11,777 level to witness a bounce towards 11,900 and then 12,020 levels, while on the downside, major support exists at 11,666 and below. Fresh selling could emerge towards the 11,550-11,500 zone.

India VIX moved up 4.86 per cent from 22.19 to 23.28 levels. Volatility needs to cool down below 20 level for the market to stabilise, taking into account any spike ahead of the US election.

On the options front, maximum Put open interest stood at 11,500 level followed by 11,000, while maximum Call OI was seen at 12,000 followed by 11,900 levels. There was Call writing at strike prices 12,000 and 11,800 and Put writing at 11,450 and 11,600 levels. Options data suggested a wider trading range between 11,600 and 11,900 levels.

Bank Nifty opened flat, but failed to hold above the immediate hurdle at 24,750 level and drifted towards 24,050 level. The index witnessed around 700-point decline from higher levels and negated the bullish price structure of the previous session. The index formed a Bearish Belt Hold candle on the daily scale as it continued to make higher lows for five weeks. Now, it has to hold above 24,250 level to witness a bounce towards 24,750 and while a key support was seen in the 24,000-23,900 zone.

Nifty futures closed negative at 11,719 level with a loss of 1.34 per cent. The trade setup looked positive Marico, Siemens, Adani Enterprises, L&T, Havells and Maruti but weak in DLF, MindTree, Indiabulls Housing, Federal Bank IndusInd Bank, IndiGo, SBI, Lupin, Sun Pharma and UBL.

(Chandan Taparia is Technical & Derivative Analyst at MOFSL. Investors are advised to consult financial advisers before taking an investment calls based on these observations)





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Study of patterns of social contacts early on in COVID-19 pandemic


The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has compelled people worldwide to quarantine. To mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, countries and workplaces have been under varying stages of lockdown since the detection of the infection in December 2019 in Wuhan, China.

In mid-April 2020, it was observed that 62% of employed adults were working remotely in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This scenario is continuing, and there is no standardized multi-site social contact study conducted in workplace settings. A study of this order helps plan strategies to address the pandemic situation – before onset as well as during.

16% of influenza transmission is estimated to occur in the workplace setting due to social interactions and respiratory infection transmissions. Likewise, the conditions at the workplace determine the SARS-CoV-2 transmission percentage.

Any significant impact of remote work on COVID-19 needs to be evaluated; this can be achieved by assessing changes in social contact patterns. In this context, Moses C. Kiti et al. published a recent medRxiv* preprint paper studying social contact patterns. In this study, they characterized the mixing across workplace environments, including on-site or when teleworking.

The median number of contacts per person per day was found to be two contacts per respondent. The authors stratified this information by day of data collection, age, sex, race, and ethnicity. This information can be broadly employed in pandemic preparedness policy for similar settings.

This study involved two multinational consulting companies ((N1=275, N2=3000) and one university administrative department ((N3=560), located in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from April to June 2020, when the shelter-in-place orders were in effect. The employees opted into the study by accepting an email invitation. Remote working was defined as any working location (home or public space) outside their designated workplace. Employees approached were 3,835, out of which 357 (9.3%) responded on the first day of contact, and 304 completed both days of contact. The results are summarized from those respondents who completed the dairy on both days.

This study was a cross-sectional non-probability survey that used standardized social contact diaries into which the respondents were to fill in. The respondents recorded their physical and non-physical contacts over two days, documented at the end of each day.

Panel (A) shows the distribution of contacts by attributes: duration (in minutes (mins) or hours (hr)). Types of contact were conversation with physical touch (Conv & Phys), physical only (Phys), or non-physical/conversation only (Conv only). A contact was repeated if observed on both days or unique if observed on only one day. Panel (B) shows the age-stratified average number of contacts over two study days. The gray area on the x-axis indicates that all respondents were over the age of 19, however they were able to report contacts under the age of 19 years. Data shown in the graphs are for 1,548 contacts recorded by 304 participants over 608 diary-days

A median of 2 contacts per respondent on both day one and two were observed.

Most of the contacts (55%) involved conversation only – occurred at home (64%) and cumulatively lasted more than 4 hours (38%). Most contacts were repeated and within the same age groups. Participants aged 30-59 years, however, reported inter-generational mixing with children.

This study compares to similar reports from the UK and China, effective during the shelter-in-place orders in the pandemic. Pre-pandemic data is unavailable for direct comparison. While the median contact number is 2, many of the contacts were repeated, which may limit the spread of infection.

Mathematical models are used to forecast and simulate the effects of interventions implemented during pandemics. These models are highly sensitive to assumptions about how people acquire infection and how they transmit it to others.

The data on the social contact patterns – the frequency and nature of contacts that individuals make daily – determine these assumptions. The authors discuss a few selection and information biases that may be present in this study.

The authors propose similar studies to assess the changes in contact patterns to parameterize mathematical models describing disease transmission and post-lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such studies help reduce the transmission risks, investigate prevention methods, and mitigate infection in the workplace.

*Important Notice

medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.

Journal reference:

  • Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020. Moses Chapa Kiti, Obianuju G Aguolu, Carol Liu, Ana Mesa Restrepo, Rachel Regina, Kathryn Willebrand, Chandra Couzens, Tilman Bartelsmeyer, Kristin Nicole Bratton, Samuel M Jenness, Steven Riley, Alessia Melegaro, Faruque Ahmed, Fauzia Malik, Ben Lopman, Saad B Omer medRxiv 2020.10.14.20212423; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212423, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212423v1  



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COVID-19’s changed drugs, alcohol patterns


Two in five Australians have reported drinking more alcohol during lockdown, while the same proportion said they were drinking less, a new study shows.

Dr Monica Barratt from RMIT University, the co-lead researcher of the Global Drug Survey COVID-19 Special Edition, said drinkers who had a diagnosed mental health condition — like feeling depressed, anxious and finding it difficult to cope — were more likely to report increased drinking compared to before the pandemic.

The survey also found twice as many drinkers reported drinking alone while connected with friends through video/audio calls or ‘watch parties’, compared to the 12 months before COVID-19.

“We’re all going through so much at the moment and I don’t know if education alone would help because we need to connect with each other and support each other,” Dr Barratt said.

“What was quite striking was almost half of the sample who reported drinking alone said they were drinking alone more often compared to before the pandemic.

“Many of us are isolated at home and in some ways it’s understandable but the more you drink alone, this is a danger sign for problematic drinking so it’s something to keep an eye on.”

With more than half of the Australian sample aged 25 and under, she said the reason for two in five Australians drinking less was because of limited access to the same locations they would normally be in to drink.

As for drugs, about half of the sample increased their cannabis use and more than 50 per cent said they were more likely to consume the drug alone, compared to pre-pandemic February.

MDMA and cocaine use were the most likely to have decreased compared to seven months ago, with the inability to attend nightclubs, festivals and parties being the most common reason.

“Those who had decreased their use of drugs noted the financial and mental health positives for that,” Dr Barratt said.

“For some people, slowing down might have given them cause to think about the positives and build on a different lifestyle once the restrictions ease.

“But we do have to be prepared for more harm occurring due to bingeing on alcohol and drugs once we’re able to do so because it’s been such a difficult time and people might want to let off steam.

“The concern there is if people haven’t been using drugs for a long time, they may not realise they’ve reduced their tolerance and may need to be concerned about how much they take.”

Drug market shifts were also reported: including half of Australian respondents saying it was harder to access illegal drugs, one-third reported increases in drug prices, and one in five reported decreased drug purity.

“Closing our borders, you would expect a shock to supply but in saying that, people can still access drugs. We are a relatively isolated country with relatively closed borders compared other countries so our drug markets are affected by these global changes and restrictions,” Dr Barratt said.

“Of those who did access illegal drugs during March to June this year, 64 per cent said there was no change in the drug transaction.

“Only a few reported signs of a constricted drug market when profiling their last drug purchase, such as higher price (8 per cent), difficulty finding a supplier (6 per cent) or taking longer than usual to get the drugs (6 per cent).”

The findings were released on Wednesday as part of the world’s largest drug survey.

There were 55,000 participants from around the world, including 1889 in Australia.



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